Confidence

22-MAR-2023

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Methods to Assess Confidence Under Uncertainty

Probability and confidence are distinct concepts, and we believe it is useful for investors to separate them.
For example, the price of two potential investments may present the same discount to expected value, but confidence in the probabilities for one may exceed those of the other.
That nuance may be relevant for determining the appropriate weighting of securities within a portfolio or evaluating diversification.
Scholars who study analytic confidence describe three relevant dimensions that investors can use to complement their probability assessments and sharpen their ranking of opportunities.

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