25 Years

Discover why the availability of semi-liquid vehicles is rising across the alternative investment space, with the largest increase in private credit solutions.

Large investments in artificial intelligence (AI) aim to meet anticipated demand, which has led some firms to give rosy forecasts. To assess them, investors may apply Bayes’ Theorem by starting with an initial belief and updating it. Base rates are a useful prior. The base rates for U.S. companies suggest OpenAI and Oracle Cloud have low odds of meeting their sales projections, even if the diffusion of AI signals major demand. A database of big projects shows few are done on time and budget.

Historically, periods of quality underperformance have been followed by a meaningful relative resurgence in quality stocks, which contributes to our view that quality offers one of the greatest opportunities in markets today.