The Risks of a Politicized Fed

Sep 10, 2025

Threats to the U.S. central bank’s independence are a long-term concern for investors.

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • While equity markets focus on a likely Fed rate cut, investors may be underestimating long-term risks to Fed independence.
  • Gold’s recent surge suggests at least some investors are hedging against potential political influence in U.S. monetary policy.
  • A politically driven Fed policy of much lower rates could lead to inflation, a weaker dollar and distorted capital allocation.
  • To help mitigate risks, investors should consider reducing exposure to small-cap and unprofitable tech stocks, and focus on quality large-cap stocks and real assets.

Most of the U.S. stock market’s ups and downs for the past month have centered on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting on September 16-17. Based on the current Fed funds futures market, there is little debate: The market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point cut is more than 99%. Add to that the potential for stimulus in 2026 from the new U.S. tax law, and it’s clear why equity investors are so optimistic.

 

Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee believes the strength of current corporate profits has bolstered the bull case for stocks in the near term. We believe the odds that the benchmark S&P 500 Index will reach 7200 by the second quarter of 2026 are now better than 50%. However, we are concerned that markets are underpricing other, longer-term risks—specifically, the risk to the Fed’s independence. 

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Wealth Management

Fed Cred

As we see it, gold’s recent rise is sending a message that the risk to Fed independence is real. We think long-term investors will want to pay attention.

Gold Surges Amid Fed Turmoil

The U.S. presidential administration has repeatedly criticized Fed leaders for not cutting interest rates sooner. Threats to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s job have ended, but in the past few weeks, unprecedented attempts to fire a sitting Fed governor, based on alleged misrepresentations in a personal mortgage application, have heated up.

 

While most markets have shown little reaction, the price of gold has risen more than 8% to a record high since August 19, when Fed governor Lisa Cook’s firing was announced.

 

Gold is typically perceived as a “safe-haven” asset amid economic uncertainty, but it has been rallying alongside stocks since October 2022 and has even significantly outperformed the U.S. stock market in that time. There have been a number of explanations for the precious metal’s behavior in recent years, but the Global Investment Committee now increasingly wonders if one key factor is more hedging by investors against the risk that politics could become a driver of Fed policy, undermining the Fed’s independence and its long-held mandate to set policy based purely on the goals of maximum employment and price stability.

Why Fed Credibility Matters

For the U.S., Fed independence has long underpinned the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency, so the issue is critical to the long-term outlook for markets and asset valuations.

 

Overly accommodative monetary policy, in the service of stimulating the economy and managing the interest expense on government debt, is politically expedient. However, in the long run, interest rates that are too low could lead to much higher inflation, a weaker U.S. dollar and a misallocation of capital, with easy money potentially distorting investors’ risk perception. This sustains unproductive firms and fuels speculative bubbles—similar to what unfolded during the housing boom before the 2008 financial crisis.

 

More generally, when monetary policymaking becomes politicized, it can undermine the credibility of the government on many levels, including government data, which affects investors’ ability to make long-run forecasts for corporate earnings, cash flows and valuations.

Portfolio Moves to Consider

The gold market seems to be sending a message that the risk to Fed independence is real. In our view, long-term investors who are focused on preserving wealth and purchasing power will want to pay attention to value. Consider selling small-cap stocks and unprofitable tech companies, as well as popular but low-quality meme stocks.

 

The Global Investment Committee also suggests:

  • being highly selective in consumer-oriented stocks;
  • adding real assets to passive U.S. equity portfolios; and
  • actively selecting U.S. large-cap quality stocks.

 

Also consider adding exposure to:

  • intermediate-duration investment-grade bonds, including municipals;
  • international equities, including emerging markets;
  • hedge funds and private secondaries; and
  • asset-backed lending and distressed securities in private credit.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from September 8, 2025, “Fed Cred.Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report. 

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