Fed Rate Cut? Not So Fast

Aug 27, 2025

Investors banking on a Fed rate cut in September could be disappointed. Here’s why the case for monetary easing is less certain.

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • Markets see a more than 80% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, but the odds may be closer to 50-50 due to strong economic indicators.
  • Solid GDP growth, stable financial conditions and low market volatility reduce pressure on the U.S. central bank to ease monetary policy.
  • Also, inflation remains above the Fed’s target and is fueling concerns among consumers, further complicating the case for a rate cut.
  • Investors should consider diversifying portfolios with real assets and being selective in consumer-oriented and U.S. large-cap quality stocks. 

Since the end of the bear market in 2022, the bullish narrative for stocks has included ambitious expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The current bull run is no different, with markets now putting the odds of a rate cut in September at more than 80%.

 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled in his annual speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that a rate cut cycle could start in September. Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee acknowledges the political pressures on the Fed to ease monetary policy. We also recognize that there has been some labor market cooling that might support a proactive rate cut. Overall, however, we see the case for a reduction as modest and put the odds much lower, at around 50-50. 

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Wealth Management

To Cut, or Not to Cut?

The markets have ambitious expectations for Fed rate cuts, but we see only a modest case for a cut in September. We put the odds at 50-50 and remain diversified.

The question is: What problems would the Fed be trying to solve by easing? Here are four things it cannot be: 

  1. 1
    A Weak Economy:

    It cannot be because of a weakening economy. On the contrary, nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth remains robust, above 5%. The unemployment rate is no higher than a year ago, at only 4.2%. Retail sales continue to grow ahead of Wall Street analysts’ expectations, and investors appear confident that the economy remains resilient, judging by the extreme outperformance of economically sensitive “cyclical” stocks versus “defensive” ones. 

  2. 2
    Tight Financial Conditions:

    Financial conditions are the most constructive since May 2022 and have actually eased since April. Issuance in the corporate bond market is near record highs; credit spreads (a measure of the additional risk of investing in non-government bonds) are still at their tightest levels in 18 years; and the availability of bank credit is the best in two years – all signs of a strong and stable economic environment with ample liquidity.

  3. 3
    Volatile Markets:

    Market stability is excellent. Equities are hitting all-time highs, valuations are in the 95th percentile on almost every metric—going back 80 years—and volatility has been low. Unlike during the 2008 global financial crisis or the 2018 and 2019 “repo” market disruptions, markets are not pressuring the Fed to cut rates. In fact, most investors are looking forward to deregulation and easier capital requirements for banks, which are likely to only free up more liquidity.

  4. 4
    Low Inflation:

    Inflation is well above the Fed’s 2% target, which could be a problem – but not one that supports cutting rates. Excluding food and energy, the “core” Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.1% year-over-year in July, while the core Producer Price Index (PPI) was up 3.7%. The full impact of tariffs is not yet visible in the data, with new rates just implemented in early August. Consumers are not optimistic. In fact, their expectation for inflation in the next year jumped to 4.9% in the latest University of Michigan survey.

Why Would the Fed Cut Rates?

Some might argue that lower Fed rates would revive the housing market, which has been held back by relatively high 30-year mortgage rates. But the Fed only directly controls very short-term rates, while mortgage rates are driven by longer-duration Treasuries. And 30-year yields are up, reflecting investors’ concern over the sustainability of U.S. government deficits and debt, as well as the increasing global supply of long-duration debt, which could weigh on demand for Treasury bonds.

 

Employment and inflation reports in September should give investors greater clarity on the economic outlook and the potential for rate cuts.

Portfolio Moves to Consider

As the story driving the equity markets evolves, the Global Investment Committee suggests selling small-cap, unprofitable tech and popular but low-quality meme stocks.

 

Look to add real assets like gold, real estate investment trusts (REITs), energy infrastructure, and industrial and agricultural commodities to complement portfolios that are benchmark-weighted in passive U.S. equities. Also, consider active stock selection in consumer-oriented and U.S. large-cap quality names.

 

Rounding out our key recommendations are:

  • Intermediate-duration investment-grade fixed income, including municipal bonds
  • International equities, including those in emerging markets
  • Hedge funds and private equity secondaries
  • In private credit, asset-backed lending and distressed debt

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from August 25, 2025, “To Cut or Not to Cut?Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report. 

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