Three Risks Hiding Behind U.S. Stocks’ Performance

Aug 13, 2025

As U.S. equities grind higher, complacent investors are overlooking risks posed by a cooling labor market, mixed corporate earnings and mounting price pressures.

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • Labor markets are slowing, as non-farm payroll numbers disappoint, continuing unemployment claims rise and hiring rates decline.
  • Second-quarter corporate earnings are weaker than headline metrics would suggest, with only a few sectors showing strong gains.
  • Price pressures are mounting as tariff rates rise, with market-based inflation forecasts jumping back to levels last seen in April.
  • Investors may want to add exposure to real assets, intermediate-duration investment-grade bonds and international stocks.

With U.S. equities lazily grinding higher, the market’s recent behavior is showing a surprising level of complacency as the S&P 500 Index has seen a historic 29% rise since April 8. In just four months, investors have completely reversed both market sentiment, from uncertainty and fear to bullish optimism, and the economic outlook, from recession to a disinflationary capital-spending boom.

 

Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee understands the thinking that underpins this best-case scenario: that tariffs will prove navigable and non-inflationary; that growth in generative AI, combined with a capex boom spurred by the new tax law, will improve corporate profit margins and productivity; and that the weak U.S. dollar will help exporters.

 

However, we see more mixed signals in the data, and believe equity investors are failing to consider at least three key risks.

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Wealth Management

Mastering the Shrug

There is a new bull case emerging for US equities, but looking at the mosaic of data, we see several risks that the market may be ignoring. When the data is mixed, it may be time to hedge.

  1. 1
    Labor markets are clearly slowing.

    The latest non-farm payroll numbers were eye-popping. The number of new jobs in July came in far below Wall Street’s consensus estimates, along with significant downward revisions to the prior two months’ data. The three-month average job creation now stands at a meager 35,000, well below the previously reported April-June trend of 150,000. But that’s not all. Continuing unemployment claims are up substantially since April. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) suggests the lowest hiring rate since 2020, and The Conference Board reports that survey respondents view finding a job now as being as difficult as it was in 2021.

  2. 2
    Corporate earnings are uneven and weaker than they appear.

    Yes, the “beat” rate – the percentage of companies that have reported second-quarter earnings above consensus estimates -- is a healthy 80%. Additionally, there are now more analyst earnings revisions going up than going down. Finally, year-over-year earnings growth is pacing at more than 9%. However, beneath the surface, there are material performance gaps between sectors, and the ongoing dominance of the “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap tech stocks is glaring. Of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, only three – info tech, communication services and financials – have posted double-digit gains. And while earnings for the Mag 7 are growing at a 26% annual clip, they are barely up for the remaining 493 stocks in the index

  3. 3
    Inflation pressures are mounting.

    The full impact of the 10% universal tariff has yet to be seen in reported inflation, but the Global Investment Committee would suggest this is a case of pain delayed, not denied. The White House’s most recent announcements nearly double the effective tariff rate to 18%. Consumer inflation has already been grinding higher, with the “core” consumer price index (CPI), excluding food and energy, rising an annualized 2.9% in June, up from a 2.8% increase in May. Also, one of the derivatives market’s most accurate forecasting measures, the one-year forward inflation swap, sees inflation back up at 3.3%, where it was forecasting inflation during the post-Liberation Day bear-market scare. 

Investing Moves to Consider

Many investors have overlooked the potential implications of the latest data amid the steady stream of policy announcements, and thus may be missing a chance to hedge when data is mixed.

 

Investors should consider adding exposure to real assets like gold, real estate investment trusts (REITs), energy infrastructure, and industrial and agricultural commodities. It may also be wise to take an active stock-selection approach to U.S. large-cap quality stocks.

 

We also recommend:

  • Intermediate-duration investment-grade fixed income, including municipal bonds
  • International equities, including emerging-market stocks
  • Hedge funds and private secondaries

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from August 11, 2025, “Mastering the Shrug.” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report. 

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