Hidden Risks Beneath the Bullish Narrative

Aug 20, 2025

The S&P 500’s surge may mask underlying risks as mega-cap tech stocks continue to dominate the market.

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • Second-quarter earnings grew 26% for the “Mag 7” tech giants but just 1% for the S&P 500’s other stocks, indicating margin pressures.
  • Stagflation may loom if these companies pass costs to consumers and cut workforces to grow margins at the rate analysts expect. 
  • Capital spending is heavily concentrated in megacap tech, particularly in AI, echoing past risks around overcapacity.
  • Investors should consider adding real assets, while taking an active approach to stock selection in quality U.S. large-cap stocks.   

The S&P 500 Index has surged a remarkable 29% from its April lows. Alongside this rally, a bullish narrative has crystallized around headline-level data suggesting manageable inflation, solid economic growth and terrific megacap tech earnings. Add to this the improving odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts and economic stimulus from the U.S. tax bill, and it’s easy to see why many investors are feeling so optimistic.

 

However, below the surface of the headlines, the story is much more complicated. Equity markets are top heavy, with the tech giants accounting for more than 50% of all stock market returns during the last five years. At the same time, the gap between the wealthiest households and everyone else has widened, with the top 20% accounting for more than half of all consumption.

 

Given these dynamics, Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee is less convinced that the bullish narrative is broadly applicable. Instead, we see risks below the surface that investors may be overlooking. 

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Wealth Management

Everybody in the Pool?

The bull case has crystallized around relatively resilient headline data, but underneath the surface lies a much more complicated story. Here’s what investors should know.

Earnings Growth Masks Margin Squeeze

First, consider the Wall Street consensus that S&P 500 earnings will grow by double-digit percentages for the rest of 2025 and all of next year as profit margins expand. It’s true that second-quarter (Q2) 2025 results beat expectations. However, a closer look reveals that Q2 earnings grew 26% year-over-year for the Mag 7—but just 1% for the other 493 stocks.

 

This suggests that margins for these companies may be getting slimmer, not expanding. Indeed, the fact that producer prices are rising faster than consumer prices, per the latest government data, signals that companies may be absorbing tariff costs and taking the hit to margins.

 

So, how will these companies deliver on higher margin expectations going forward? Will they begin passing the costs to consumers? If so, inflation rises. Will they reduce their workforce to cut costs? That could hurt consumer spending, the engine of U.S. economic growth. If both occur, markets could face the toxic combination of weakening growth and rising inflation known as stagflation.

 

Many investors are pinning their hopes for 2026 margin gains on gen-AI adoption and productivity enhancements, but is that realistic when Census Bureau data show current enterprise AI adoption is just 7%?

Hyperscalers Drive Capex Concentration

The Global Investment Committee also questions the idea that a broad-based capital spending boom is occurring. Capital spending is strong (and has been since 2010) but now, it is concentrated among a handful of mega-cap tech companies focused on building generative AI capacity. The four major cloud-computing providers, known as hyperscalers, are spending more than $300 billion per year, accounting for more than 20% of all capex in the S&P 500. Data center investments add another $40 billion.

 

The last time capex was this concentrated in a theme was during the U.S. oil and natural gas boom known as the “shale revolution” that began in the mid-2000s. Back then, accelerating tech improvements rapidly led to overcapacity.

 

Now, as the hyperscalers build AI capacity and the cost of AI usage plummets, questions loom around whether the rapid expansion could lead to similar overcapacity and when the AI buildout will yield meaningful return on investment. Increasingly, the fate of the market hinges on these issues. 

Investment Moves to Consider

Considering all this, selectivity remains key.

 

Investors should consider selling small-cap stocks, unprofitable tech and popular but low-quality meme stocks.

 

Look to add real assets like gold, real estate investment trusts (REITs), energy infrastructure and commodities, while taking an active approach to stock selection in quality U.S. large-cap names.

 

Consider also intermediate-duration investment-grade fixed income, including municipal bonds, and international equities, including in emerging markets.

 

Rounding out our key recommendations are hedge funds and private equity secondaries, and in private credit, asset-backed lending and distressed debt.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from August 18, 2025, “Everybody in the Pool?” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report. 

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