How to Invest in a ‘K-Shaped’ Economy

Nov 5, 2025

The U.S. economy appears increasingly divided between the “haves” and the “have nots.” What could it mean for investors?

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • The current “K-shaped” economy highlights a divide in which high-income earners and select companies thrive, while lower-income groups and broader sectors lag.
  • Two scenarios for market growth: More AI-driven gains with limited impact on broader sectors, or broader economic growth if rate cuts and deregulation boost many industries.
  • Investors should seek maximum diversification, favoring large-cap quality stocks, increasing duration in bonds and adding exposure to international equities and real assets like gold and real estate.

As the S&P 500 Index nears a 17% gain for the year, the market appears to be priced for a rosy future. With markets overlooking recent negative headlines and focusing instead on positive news, such as Federal Reserve rate cuts, trade de-escalation and solid third-quarter corporate earnings, equity valuations remain rich and investor expectations high.

 

Given the already lofty valuations, what could keep the market’s momentum going from here? Where could further gains come from?

Understanding the ‘K-Shaped’ Economy

To help answer those questions, it’s important to understand the current “K-shaped” economy—a circumstance in which different consumer segments and industries grow at drastically different rates, creating a divergence like the letter “K.” In this instance, higher-income earners are seeing their wealth grow through investments, while lower-income individuals are struggling. Similarly, industries like technology, particularly those related to AI, are booming, while other sectors lag.

 

Currently the top 40% of households by income—the top of the “K”—account for 60% of all consumer spending, which, in turn, powers much of U.S. economic growth. Those households also control nearly 85% of America’s wealth.

 

Because the wealth of these top households is closely tied to stock market performance, their consumption patterns are increasingly influenced by the market’s performance, rather than traditional income growth. As a result, forecasting the overall labor market may be less important than forecasting the direction of the market itself to anticipate consumption levels—and thus, the path of the economy.

Two Scenarios for Markets

Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee suggests that investors consider two possibilities as 2026 approaches.

 

Scenario A:

 

U.S. stock performance continues to drive consumption in high-income households – meaning that economic growth may rely on investors’ continued belief that the promise of generative AI capex will come to fruition. Our view is that there is about a 50/50 chance that these enormous AI-related investments will deliver on investors’ very high expectations: AI implementation may take longer than expected, with productivity gains limited to a few large companies. In this scenario, labor-market weakness and Fed rate cuts to relieve the pain for the lower part of the “K” could be of little consequence. 

 

Scenario B:

 

Stimulus from lower rates, along with tax refunds and deregulation, could help strengthen the broader labor market. In this case, equity gains could expand beyond the AI-focused tech giants dominating markets to a variety of industries and sectors that would benefit from wider consumer spending and improved economic conditions. However, this scenario may force the Fed to curtail rate cuts if inflation risk rises. Here, too, the likelihood of this scenario playing out is mixed. 

Implications for Investors

Navigating the K-shaped economy will be complicated. The Global Investment Committee suggests remaining fully invested, with maximum active management and portfolio diversification.

 

Consider taking profits in volatile, speculative investments in unprofitable companies, as well as small- and micro-cap stocks, and investing the proceeds in large-cap quality stocks, including the “Magnificent 7” tech companies and generative AI beneficiaries in financials, health care and energy.

 

Also, in fixed income, consider adding exposure to five-to-10-year bonds for interest income.

 

Finally, consider international equities and real assets, including gold, real estate and select private infrastructure.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from November 3, 2025, “A Truly Special ‘K’.” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report. 

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