What’s Behind Gold’s Record Rally?

Oct 15, 2025

The yellow metal’s surge defies typical market dynamics. Here’s what could be driving its rise.

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • Gold and stocks have been moving together, defying their traditional diversifying relationship, with gold up 2.5 times since October 2022.
  • The metal’s unexpected surge has been linked to investor concerns of an AI bubble, inflation hedging and U.S. dollar debasement.
  • However, with market-fear gauges low, growth solid and inflation expectations anchored, these explanations don’t tell the whole story.
  • Central banks’ reduced reliance on the dollar and the rise of digital currencies like stablecoin could support gold’s continued bull market.

It is usually easy to characterize markets as either “risk-on” – with favorable conditions encouraging investors to take on more risk – or “risk-off,” with uncertainty creating an appetite for investments that have traditionally been more dependable. But the current three-year-old equity bull market is different, as the relationships between certain asset classes have been unusual.

 

Of particular note: Gold, which has historically been considered a “safe haven,” would generally move independently of stocks, which are more risky. Instead, they have been moving in the same direction—mostly up. As equities have surged, gold has risen some 2.5 times since October 2022 and more than 50% for the year to date, with an especially eye-catching rally to record levels in the past 10 weeks.

 

This has many investors scratching their heads. So, what’s going on?

 

The Narrative Doesn’t Fully Explain the Rally

Investors have floated a number of plausible theories for gold’s recent performance – but none fully explain it on their own.

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Wealth Management

Greed and Fear?

What’s going on with gold? The usual “hedging” hypotheses fall short of explaining gold’s extraordinary rise—and its positive correlation with stocks.

  1. 1
    Bubble concerns

    First, it’s possible that investors are buying gold as a hedge against the risk of a speculative AI bubble in stocks. The equity market is expensive and top-heavy, dominated by a handful of mega-cap tech stocks—in some ways, resembling the dot.com bubble in 1999-2000.

    However, investors don’t seem overly concerned about a market pullback. Fear gauges like the CBOE Volatility Index have largely remained low. Corporate fundamentals don’t seem to be wavering. And while GDP growth could slow slightly from the second quarter’s healthy 3.8% pace, it should still come in around a solid 3% or a little higher for the second half of 2025, using the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow as an indicator.

  2. 2
    Inflation hedging

    Historically, gold has helped investors preserve purchasing power during periods of inflation. So there is a possibility that investors are buying gold as an inflation hedge, especially with the full effects of higher U.S. tariffs still to be seen. But investors’ inflation expectations have actually remained stable, with the one-year U.S. dollar inflation swap—usually the most accurate gauge of short-term inflation expectations—staying flat since early April at about 3.2%. 

  3. 3
    Dollar debasement

    Another hypothesis is that owning a hard asset like gold may help offset the risk of “debasement,” or devaluing, of the U.S. dollar. This thesis suggests that several factors – mounting fears over deglobalization, high U.S. debt and deficits, and threats to the Fed’s independence – have shaken investors’ confidence in the dollar, leading to a reduction in its use globally, including among central banks, which increased their gold holdings during the first half of this year.

    While this thesis is compelling, it does not fully explain gold’s recent rise, as global central banks have been diversifying their reserves away from the dollar for nearly a decade. Also, demand for dollar-denominated assets like Treasuries has remained strong, including from foreign buyers.

Another Factor to Consider

If none of these theories completely explains gold’s rise, what else could be driving the yellow metal?

 

Increasingly, the Global Investment Committee believes gold’s rally may be linked to a global financial shift, as central banks reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar and anticipate changes in currency markets driven by stablecoins and other digital assets. These digital currencies have the potential to disrupt traditional fiat-currency markets. By using gold to back fiat currencies or cryptocurrencies, various entities, including governments, could challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global transactions. This trend could support the continuation of gold’s bull market.

Investing Moves to Consider

As the adage goes, bull markets are meant to be ridden, not timed. Our foundational advice is to be fully invested according to your strategic allocations.

 

However, diversification and security selection are important. Real assets, municipal bonds, intermediate U.S. Treasuries, real estate and select private infrastructure present opportunities.

 

Also consider equity sectors that may benefit from of generative-AI-enhanced productivity, like financials, healthcare and energy.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from October 13, 2025, “Greed and Fear.” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report. 

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