The Bull Market’s Seventh Inning

Oct 1, 2025

The AI capex boom that has powered U.S. equity gains for nearly three years may be entering its later phases.

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • Major AI cloud providers are seeing a drop in free cash flow growth, raising valuation concerns.
  • Key revenue segments for hyperscalers appear to be slowing due to market saturation, monopolies and increased competition.
  • Recent speculative deals in generative AI echo past risky strategies, raising concerns about their sustainability.
  • In this environment, investors may want to sell small-cap stocks and unprofitable tech companies, while actively picking U.S. large-cap quality stocks.

The S&P 500 Index has managed to defy the “September curse” of historically poor performance and deliver a gain of almost 3% in September. Even more impressively, since the current U.S. equity bull market began in October 2022, the S&P 500 has gained nearly 90%.

 

In the near term, many investors may focus on the positives: the possibility that equity market gains will broaden further across sectors, the potential for a reacceleration in economic growth next year, the stimulus expected from the new tax law and easier Federal Reserve policy.

 

However, given the market dominance of the “Magnificent 7” tech giants and other companies in the data center ecosystem, Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee believes the durability of this nearly three-year-old bull market rests, more than anything, on the current surge in capital spending on artificial intelligence. And there, we see cause for concern, suggesting the AI capex boom—and, thus, the equity boom—may be closer to the seventh inning than the first or second. At least three recent developments warrant attention. 

  1. 1
    Challenges in free cash flow growth for hyperscalers

    First, consider “free cash flow” growth at the major AI cloud-computing providers, known as hyperscalers. As the race for computing power accelerates, this key financial metric has turned decidedly negative for these companies, with some estimates suggesting it could shrink around 16% over the next 12 months. When free cash flow growth for the market’s most highly valued companies slows or turns negative, valuations come into question, and investors tend to become more cautious. Further complicating matters, capital spending tends to involve multi-year projects and can’t turn on a dime, making it harder for companies to course correct if necessary. 

  2. 2
    Slowing growth in key revenue segments

    Most of the hyperscalers’ cash flows that are funding generative AI are coming from segments where growth is slowing. The slowdown stems from market saturation or monopolies—as seen in search and digital advertising—and increasing competition. Consider recent dynamics in cloud services, for example, where new entrants are competing on price to gain market share. 

  3. 3
    Speculative deal-making

    Most concerningly, the latest deal-making in generative AI smacks of speculation on unprofitable technologies and schemes that call to mind the “vendor-financing” strategies of past eras, in which sellers would help to finance a buyer’s purchases of their goods or services. For instance, one major cloud infrastructure company recently committed to build compute capacity for a leading generative AI business with a fledgling revenue model, and will finance that commitment with debt. Meanwhile, the top U.S.-based chip maker—already dependent on the business of its six peers in the Mag 7—is now moving to support a legacy player in its industry, as well as vendor financing for large language model developers. 

Investment Plays for the ‘Later Innings’

Against this backdrop, the Global Investment Committee suggests selling small-cap stocks, unprofitable tech companies, and popular but low-quality meme stocks, while being highly selective in consumer-oriented equities.

 

Consider adding real assets like gold, real estate investment trusts (REITs) and energy infrastructure if your portfolio passively tracks the benchmark U.S. equity index. Also consider active stock selection in U.S. large-cap quality equities.

 

The committee favors intermediate-duration investment-grade fixed income, including municipal bonds, as well as international equities, including emerging-market stocks.

 

Lastly, consider hedge funds, private equity secondaries and, in private credit, asset-backed lending and distressed investments.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from September 29, 2025, “It’s All About That ‘Base’.” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report. 

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