Three months after the introduction of Morgan Stanley’s key investment themes for 2026, stocks tied to the four core themes are outperforming the broader market.
Equities tied to AI & Tech Diffusion, the Future of Energy, a Multipolar World and Societal Shifts have gained 7% year to date, outperforming the S&P 500 by 12% and the MSCI World Index by 11%. Leading areas include AI infrastructure, energy security, defense, healthcare and emerging segments, such as humanoid robotics.
“These gains reflect not only the strength of each theme individually, but also the growing intersections between them,” says Stephen Byrd, Morgan Stanley’s Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research.
AI is driving unprecedented demand for compute and energy, while early shifts in labor markets are beginning to emerge, with associated societal implications. At the same time, energy is becoming a strategic priority for nations as geopolitics are redefining access to energy and technology, as well as broader economic and market dynamics.
“It’s striking how quickly the landscape has shifted and how significant these trends have become in just a short period of time,” Byrd says. “AI, energy, geopolitics and social change are no longer separate stories. Understanding the intersections between them may be the key to understanding markets for years to come.”
Geopolitics Reinforces a Multipolar World
The global economy continues to see the rise of multiple “poles” of power that are not necessarily aligned in their goals, as nations seek greater self-sufficiency in energy, critical minerals and technology. This trend is exacerbated by the Iran conflict, which has had a meaningful impact on energy supply, with ripple effects across the global economy.
“We believe this dynamic will continue to resonate globally in a significant way,” Byrd says. “The shift to a multipolar world is likely to be a major driver of markets not just this year, but well beyond.”
Morgan Stanley Research analysts see upside for select defense stocks as governments around the world increase their spending on national security.
AI Accelerates More Than Expected
The fast pace of AI adoption is another defining development for markets in 2026. Global usage—measured in units of text, or tokens—has risen approximately 250% since January, from 6.4 trillion tokens to 22.7 trillion.
“We expected strong progress in large language models, but this is a step-change in capability,” Byrd says. “That has created a world where compute demand exceeds supply, one of the defining investment stories of 2026.”
The acceleration of AI is likely to intensify market debates around disruption. Morgan Stanley Research expects early signs of AI-driven price declines in certain sectors, such as some areas in the services industry, in the second half of the year. This could contribute to wider wage inequality, higher capital expenditures, potential upward pressure on interest rates and increased valuations for assets that cannot be replicated by AI.
Areas that may benefit include AI adopters, data center infrastructure and humanoid robotics.
Energy Demand Grows With AI
AI runs on energy. Data centers, often described as AI factories, require significant amounts of power. Morgan Stanley Research is forecasting U.S. energy consumption to rise by 10% over the next decade.
This growing demand could accelerate the development of low-cost energy sources and technologies, such as carbon capture, energy storage, nuclear power and grid optimization. Governments are likely to prioritize energy independence, while also facing political pressure as higher energy costs affect consumers.
Potential beneficiaries include companies involved in powering AI, natural gas, nuclear energy, power grids, clean energy and storage, energy security and carbon solutions.
Societal Shifts From Technology
It’s no secret that AI is transforming the labor market and Morgan Stanley Research thinks there will be increasing corporate and government initiatives aimed at reskilling workers in response to AI-driven job transitions.
At the same time, labor market changes and the evolving global economy may place additional pressure on lower-income consumers, reinforcing a “K-shaped” dynamic in which higher-income groups continue to thrive while others face increasing challenges.
Meanwhile, advances in healthcare and life sciences—supported by AI—could drive greater longevity and improved quality of life.
Areas of opportunity include the “diabesity” ecosystem, AI & healthcare, retirement industries (wealth, asset management and insurance), fermented proteins, beverage producers and reskilling companies.
