How to Invest During a 'Growth Scare'

Mar 5, 2025

The mood in markets is dimming as growth appears to slow, inflation concerns persist and market volatility looms. What does this mean for your investments?

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • A spate of weak economic readings suggests a slowdown, with data falling below expectations and services activity contracting.
  • Persistent inflation, rising policy uncertainty and a seasonal drop in market liquidity could spell further volatility for financial markets.
  • Investors should focus on diversification across asset classes and consider alternatives like hedge funds and real assets to help mitigate risks.

It’s hard to believe 2025 is only two months old, given how much has changed. Since the start of the year, many investors have toned down their longstanding optimism as the Federal Reserve signals patience in cutting rates, while investors consider whether new competitors in artificial intelligence could undermine the dominance of U.S. tech companies that drove so much of the 2024 gains in U.S. equities.

 

On top of these developments, a recent spate of weak economic data and falling consumer confidence, alongside rising policy uncertainty, have  sparked a “growth scare” in financial markets. Consider:

 

  • The Citi Economic Surprise Index, which tracks the gap between expectations and reality of economic performance, has plummeted to its lowest level since September 2024, indicating data are coming in well below economists’ expectations.
  • The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of activity in the U.S. services sector fell into contraction for the first time in more than two years.
  • Consumer sentiment has weakened, measured by both the University of Michigan Index and the Conference Board Survey, amid growing concerns over inflation and the economy.
  • January existing home sales fell month-over-month, the first decline since September 2024.
  • The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators dipped below forecasts.

 

Amid this downbeat data, the 10-year Treasury yield—a key indicator of investor sentiment about the economy’s future health—has fallen below 4.3%, from about 4.8% in mid-January.

 

All told, real gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2025 could easily slow from last quarter’s reading of 2.3%.

More Challenges Ahead?

The recent economic data don’t necessarily signal a departure from an economic “soft landing,” in which growth gradually slows and inflation recedes. However, these readings are occurring against a backdrop in which three other variables may pose further challenges for investors.

Vibe Shift

A “growth scare” may be setting in, as weaker economic data and lower consumer confidence combine with rising policy uncertainty. How should investors be positioned?

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  1. 1
    Persistent Inflation Concerns

    Although key inflation metrics are down sharply from their mid-2022 peak, there has been no real incremental progress in recent months. Consumer Price Index (CPI) metrics have been anchored at about 3% for the past seven months, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) metrics rose in January. Consumers’ inflation expectations are on the rise as well, with the one-year outlook remaining at 4.3% and the five-to-10-year outlook increasing to 3.5%, the highest since 1995, according to the latest University of Michigan survey. Headlines about egg prices topping $8 per dozen due to bird flu are not helping. Importantly, combining higher inflation with slowing growth spells stagflation—typically a scenario that is not good for stocks or bonds. 

  2. 2
    Rising Policy Uncertainty

    U.S. policy uncertainty is rising rapidly amid shifting political winds in Washington, D.C.—a dynamic that is historically linked to rising market volatility, falling consumer confidence and wider risk premiums (i.e., the additional returns investors expect for taking on riskier investments compared to a risk-free asset). While these spreads are currently low or negative, apparently disconnected from rising policy uncertainty, their potential widening could suggest investors see growing risk of losses ahead.

  3. 3
    Market Liquidity Challenges

    Finally, this is all happening as market liquidity (or the ease with which assets can be quickly bought and sold without major price fluctuations) enters a seasonally weak period as investors liquidate some holdings to pay their taxes. A potential rise in volatility from lower liquidity could be exacerbated by debate in Washington about the debt ceiling, fiscal austerity measures and a new federal budget that includes the extension of 2017 tax cuts. Promises of fiscal austerity, while potentially positive for the long-term debt outlook, may weigh on short-term growth estimates as well.

Considerations for Investors

Given these dynamics, the current growth scare may persist for a while, and investors are perhaps right to be cautious. To be sure, Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee does not think the fundamental foundation for earnings in 2025 has changed yet, but risks are increasing.

 

Investors should consider the importance of staying at maximum levels of diversification by asset class, sector and geography.

 

In U.S. equities, avoid the market-cap-weighted benchmark equity index in favor of its equal-weighted counterpart or active management.

 

Consider adding hedge funds for uncorrelated and more stable potential returns, along with investment-grade credit, high-quality municipal bonds, real assets like gold and residential real estate, and select opportunistic private investments.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from March 3, 2025, “Vibe Shift.” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report. 

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