Two Events That Could Reshape Markets

Feb 5, 2025

Investors face a pivotal change in markets following the Fed’s pause on rate cuts and the news of a major Chinese AI rival. How should you invest?

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • With the Fed signaling higher-for-longer rates, S&P 500 gains going forward may hinge on earnings growth, rather than monetary policy.
  • The emergence of Chinese AI rival DeepSeek challenges the dominance of mega-cap U.S. tech firms and may compel investors to begin favoring other sectors that can benefit from AI.
  • Against this backdrop, investors should consider focusing on cyclical and value stocks as well as companies aligned to long-term market trends.

After a two-year tear, the S&P 500 Index has stalled amid elevated interest rate volatility in recent weeks – underperforming gold and silver, European equities and the U.S. financials sector.

 

Many investors may shrug this off as a mere pause in the U.S. equity bull run, as markets weigh the implications of the new U.S. presidential administration’s policies. However, Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee believes a more fundamental shift is afoot, one that challenges the bullish narrative that has prevailed since October 2022. Recall the storyline: The Federal Reserve will cut rates and cool inflation, while the economy grows and the U.S. reigns dominant in generative AI and tech innovation, powering an expansion of U.S. equity multiples.

 

But two big developments last week dealt a knockout blow to that thesis. We believe these changes help usher in what we call the “Great Normalization” – a new period in which rates will likely settle at higher levels and investors will shift their focus from Fed policy back to earnings growth as the key driver of stock prices. Consider what happened: 

The Great Normalization

A recent stall in U.S. stock momentum may suggest a fundamental reset that brings investors into the “Great Normalization.” Here’s what investors should know.

n/a

  1. 1
    The Fed continued to signal ‘higher for longer’ rates.

    At last week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, policymakers hit “pause” on rate cuts and – to the disappointment of some investors – made no mention of curtailing efforts to shrink the Fed’s outsized balance sheet, which has supported easy financial conditions for years.

     

    The Fed’s reticence likely signals that anyone still dismissing a “higher for longer” rates outlook needs to give up the ghost. The era of lower rates that has driven richer stock valuations – and, in turn, higher index levels – is nearing its limits. Markets now firmly expect the Fed to ultimately lower its policy rate to around 4%, well above earlier forecasts of a roughly 2.8% “terminal rate.” This likely means that from here, advances in the S&P 500 can only happen when companies show actual earnings growth, as higher rates make it more crucial for investors to favor companies with strong fundamentals and an ability to thrive despite higher costs of capital. The Global Investment Committee believes S&P 500 profit growth will likely be closer to 7%-10% in 2025, rather than the forecast 12%-13%, which seems too ambitious given recent history.

  2. 2
    A new Chinese AI model shook U.S. tech’s dominance.

    The second significant development that argues for “the Great Normalization” is the news around Chinese AI developer DeepSeek and its cost-competitive offering. The development upended markets, as investors suddenly began to question the continued dominance of top U.S. tech players.

     

    While the Global Investment Committee has limited insight into the viability of this new application, it serves as a reminder that technology has a way of constantly reinventing itself. The tech innovation cycle is racing ahead, and the phase of hardware and infrastructure dominance may be maturing, with the key advances shifting toward software and application development – dynamics that undermine “U.S.-only” dominance. This transition may cause the S&P 500 to become less concentrated in mega-cap tech names and help new AI leaders emerge in business services, software, healthcare and financial services.

Investing Moves to Consider

Against this backdrop, investors should watch for a change in U.S. stock index leadership from the “Magnificent 7” tech companies. Instead, watch value and cyclical equities that can benefit from a growing economy.

 

Within U.S. stocks, consider adding cyclicals like financials, energy, domestic manufacturers and consumer services.

 

Also think about diversifying across credit and spread products, real assets, select hedge fund strategies, preferred securities and emerging market (EM) debt.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from February 3, 2025, “The Great Normalization.” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report. 

Find a Financial Advisor, Branch and Private Wealth Advisor near you. 

Check the background of Our Firm and Investment Professionals on FINRA's Broker/Check.

Discover More

Insights to help you go further.