Can European Stocks Stay in the Lead?

Feb 26, 2025

After lagging U.S. equities for years, European stocks are finally having a moment. Will it last?

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • Improving economic activity, supportive policy and potential peace in Ukraine could bolster growth and stock performance in Europe.
  • Despite this favorable backdrop, the possibility of a multi-generational shift in American foreign allegiances clouds the outlook for the region, suggesting investors stay cautious.
  • Consider bolstering geographical diversification in portfolios, focusing on global names with quality balance sheets and strong brands.

With U.S. equities cooling amid higher interest rates, shifting economic policy and new AI competition from China, investors should be alert to an important development abroad: the recent surge in European stocks.

 

Over the past three months, the benchmark MSCI Europe Index has risen roughly 9%, handily beating the S&P 500’s roughly 0.5% gain. This is Europe’s strongest relative start to a year since 2000 and a marked contrast to its lackluster past decade.

 

Skeptics can certainly dismiss European stocks’ recent gains as little more than investors rebalancing portfolios toward more value-oriented areas of the market at the beginning of the year. After all, European stocks sport a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 14x, versus 22x for U.S. equities, marking a multi-decade extreme in terms of valuation gaps.

 

However, while Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee doesn’t yet see a sustainable bull market at hand, there do seem to be some fundamental catalysts behind Europe’s resurgence that bear watching.

Europe: Trend or Trade?

European stocks have surged recently. Is this simply a trade based on relative value, or is there something more fundamental? Learn more in this audiocast.

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Europe’s Economy Gains Momentum

First, Europe is meaningfully outpacing the U.S. in positive “economic surprises,” with economic data coming in better than analysts expected. Over the past three months, readings have improved for Europe’s purchasing managers' indices (PMIs), indicating health in the manufacturing and services sectors. Earnings revision breadth (i.e., the proportion of analysts increasing versus decreasing their company earnings estimates) is also improving. In addition, European bank profitability, as measured by return on equity (ROE), is hitting record highs.

 

The monetary and fiscal policy backdrop also appears favorable. While Morgan Stanley analysts now see the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting rates only once this year, the European Central Bank is expected to cut three or four times. There’s also the prospect of meaningful political change across major countries such as the UK, France and Germany, potentially leading to more aggressive fiscal policy that supports economic growth and company profitability.

Peace Could Spur Growth

An even more compelling argument for sustainable growth in Europe is the prospect of peace in Ukraine following three years of war. Investors may be increasingly willing to price at least three potential benefits of a ceasefire in their assumptions. 

  1. 1
    Massive reconstruction in Ukraine

    According to the World Bank, restoration projects could generate as much as $486 billion in new engineering and construction work over the next decade. Although Morgan Stanley analysts believe the number may ultimately be closer to half that amount, it would nonetheless create much-anticipated and needed infrastructure spending.

  2. 2
    Higher defense spending

    Economic stimulus is likely to come with EU and NATO fortification of defense-spending commitments. This could take total defense spending from roughly 2% of gross domestic product to 3.5% over the next several years, benefiting the aerospace and defense industries.  

  3. 3
    Lower energy prices

    Finally, there’s the hope of a resumption of natural gas deliveries from Russia, potentially relieving inflationary pressures on energy prices in several key industries. Here, the Global Investment Committee is skeptical, given complex political dynamics and the fact that most gas demand since the war has been satisfied by imports from the U.S. Nevertheless, there is a belief that inflation expectations could fall, helping rates decline in the event of a ceasefire, as Russian supply returns more freely to global markets.

Reasons to Stay Cautious

While all of these factors paint a much better backdrop for Europe than in the recent past, the Global Investment Committee remains cautious. Recent events emanating from the Munich Security Conference and the White House regarding the U.S.’s approach to peace talks with Russia could be interpreted as marking a multi-generational shift in global allegiances. With much still to be determined, and with U.S. policy positions seeming to be defined in real time, material uncertainty remains.

Investing Implications

This means now is the time for prudent portfolio diversification, not complacency. Investors should consider bolstering geographical diversification through strategies focused on global-market-leading companies with quality balance sheets and strong brands.

 

Consider complementing these positions with additional exposure to investments in Japan and emerging markets, particularly China.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from February 24, 2025, “Europe: Trend or Trade?” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report. 

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