Why Are Bond Yields Surging?

Jan 15, 2025

As long-term U.S. bond yields soar, stocks look vulnerable. Here’s what’s driving the rate rise, and what investors should do next.

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • With “real” yields driving long-term rates higher, Treasury markets appear to see robust economic growth and stable inflation ahead.
  • However, the concurrent rise in the “term premium” also suggests markets are concerned about risks related to government policy.
  • Investors should consider diversifying into fixed income, MLPs, REITs, certain hedge fund strategies and emerging market debt to help mitigate risks from high stock valuations.

Despite strong performance overall in 2024, U.S. stock markets ended the year with a whimper. The S&P 500 Index dipped about 2.5% in December, due in part to a strong move higher in long-term U.S. government bond rates. Higher rates tend to make bonds more attractive relative to riskier equities, and over the past two months, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen more than 50 basis points to about 4.8%, roughly a nine-month high.  

 

For many investors, this surge in yields may seem counterintuitive, given that recent monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve and Wall Street’s consensus forecasts of economic slowing would typically weigh on long-term yields. So, what is the Treasury market anticipating? Breaking down the 10-year yield’s move into its underlying parts reveals that bond investors may see at least two key trends driving higher-than-expected rates.  

  1. 1
    Robust growth with stable inflation

    Remember that the nominal 10-year Treasury yield comprises different elements that signal investors’ expectations. One is the inflation-adjusted, or “real,” yield, which acts as a proxy for expected economic growth. Another is the “inflation breakeven rate,” which measures investors’ future inflation expectations. It’s important to understand which of these has recently driven up 10-year Treasury yields.

     

    Many investors, including Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee, have grown concerned that the incoming presidential administration’s proposed policy actions around tariffs and deportations might increase inflation, as companies paying tariffs may pass the costs to consumers, while deportations may reduce the number of available workers and thus put upward pressure on wages. Interestingly, however, Treasury markets currently reflect an extremely stable inflation outlook, with the breakeven rate unchanged around 2.3% over the past two months.

     

    Rather, the real yield component has risen about 25-28 basis points, to roughly 2.3%, the highest level since 2009 when measured on a quarterly basis. This suggests Treasury markets see above-consensus expectations for economic growth ahead. A stronger-than-expected economy, in turn, may push up the Fed’s estimate of the so-called neutral rate, i.e., the policy rate that keeps the economy in balance.  

  2. 2
    High investor uncertainty

    Another, perhaps more important, way to understand the recent move in the 10-year Treasury yield is to look at the “term premium,” which is the additional yield investors expect for holding a long-term bond, instead of a series of shorter-term bonds, due to the uncertainty around future rate changes that might affect its price.

     

    The 10-year Treasury term premium, after remaining near zero or negative for much of the past 15 years, has risen 27-30 basis points over the past two months, to around 55 basis points—its highest level since 2015—as Fed policy normalizes. This suggests bond investors may increasingly expect to be compensated for policy-related risks. These likely include the U.S. government’s unfunded deficit spending and outsized debt, as well as an anticipated shift in Treasury funding strategy to include issuance of more longer-term bonds, and possible changes to the Fed’s balance sheet management.

     

    To put this into a historical perspective, looking back to 1960, term premiums on the 10-year Treasury have historically averaged 1.45%. So, normalization could mean even higher yields in the longer run.

Implications for Investors

In the very short run, all of this volatility may leave U.S. long-duration bonds a bit oversold and can create a buying opportunity. (Bond prices fall when yields rise.)

 

However, for U.S. stocks, the surge in rates is increasingly precarious, as it leaves relative stock-bond valuations near extremes. With the 10-year Treasury yield where it is, the current S&P 500 equity risk premium—i.e., the reward an investor can expect for owning stocks over risk-free Treasuries—is sitting at negative 9 basis points. The last time stocks where this expensive relative to bonds was in 1999-2000, before the dotcom bubble burst.

Portfolio Moves to Consider

With this in mind, investors should consider using the recent Treasury sell-off as an entry point for building positions in credit.

 

Consider also supplementing fixed income positions with master-limited partnerships (MLPs), residential real estate investment trusts (REITs), market-neutral and absolute-return hedge fund strategies, preferreds, high dividend-paying stocks, and emerging market (EM) debt.

 

Among highly valued growth stocks, be selective and avoid crowded passive exposures.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from January 13, 2025, “Return of the Term Premium.” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report. 

Find a Financial Advisor, Branch and Private Wealth Advisor near you. 

Check the background of Our Firm and Investment Professionals on FINRA's Broker/Check.

Discover More

Insights to help you go further.