Outlook 2025: The Case for Portfolio Diversification

Jan 22, 2025

While many investors have become accustomed to passive equity-index investing, a more diversified strategy could offer better risk-adjusted return.

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • The S&P 500 Index is highly expensive and overly dependent on a few large tech stocks beating optimistic performance targets.
  • Stocks and bonds are moving in tandem, counter to their traditional relationship, highlighting a need to look beyond traditional assets for diversification.
  • With the S&P 500 expected to deliver a modest 7% return, other regions, sectors and asset classes may prove more attractive.
  • Consider broadening portfolios with non-U.S. equities, credit products, certain alternatives and other diversifying assets.

In recent months, Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee has repeatedly urged investors to seek maximum portfolio diversification in 2025. As investors rebalance portfolios for a new year and a new U.S. presidential administration, this recommendation takes on additional urgency following the recent stall in the U.S. stock market’s momentum alongside a rapid move higher in Treasury yields.

 

Many investors might want to stick with familiar, recently successful approaches, such as passive exposure to the S&P 500 Index. However, a more diversified investment strategy could offer better risk-adjusted returns. Here are five critical points supporting this view.

  1. 1
    High Valuation and Concentration in the S&P 500

    The benchmark U.S. equity index is extremely richly priced and excessively concentrated. It currently trades at more than 22x forward earnings, placing it in the 95th percentile of historical valuations over the past 35 years. What’s more, the 10 biggest stocks in the S&P 500 account for nearly 40% of its total market capitalization, leaving the index overly dependent on a few key mega-cap tech companies continuing to surpass ambitious performance forecasts. 

  2. 2
    Optimistic Earnings Expectations

    The Global Investment Committee believes Wall Street analysts’ earnings expectations are far too optimistic. Current forecasts put S&P 500 company earnings growth at 13% in 2025 and 15% in 2026, despite a potential economic slowing. This seems a bit of a stretch. The “Magnificent 7” mega-cap tech stocks that have dominated the index in recent years likely face a material slowdown in year-over-year profit margin growth. The other 493 companies, meanwhile, may struggle to boost margins without resorting to job reductions and other cost cuts.

  3. 3
    Better Opportunities Beyond Passive U.S. Equity Exposure

     With the S&P 500 expected to deliver a modest 7% return in 2025, other regions, sectors and asset classes may prove more attractive. For instance, markets in Europe, China, Japan and emerging economies may present opportunities, with varying monetary policies and economic conditions potentially stimulating growth. In U.S. markets, there is wide performance variation among different types of stocks and sectors, which may also present unique opportunities below the surface of major indices; for example, unbeknownst to many investors, financials outperformed the S&P 500 in 2024. Beyond equities, credit and “spread” products in the fixed income markets could get a boost from strong economic trends and produce total returns approaching 8%-10% with current yields of 5%-7%. 

  4. 4
    Positive Stock-Bond Correlation

    Traditionally, stocks and bonds have moved inversely, providing a natural hedge in diversified portfolios. However, recent trends have shown these assets moving in tandem, with both experiencing losses simultaneously, as seen in 2022. Currently, higher bond yields and, thus, lower bond prices are coinciding with lower stock prices. This trend underscores the importance of diversifying beyond traditional asset classes to help mitigate risk. 

  5. 5
    Policy Uncertainty

    There remains considerable uncertainty around the effects of the new U.S. presidential administration’s policies—a reality markets still don’t fully appreciate. Consider, for example, that while investors have cheered plans for growth-stimulating deregulation and tax cuts, the economic benefits may be offset by disruptive policies around tariffs and immigration. New fiscal policy will also likely erode the dominance of the Magnificent 7, as the benefits accrue away from this non-manufacturing, asset-light group and toward domestic manufacturers, highly regulated industries like healthcare and financials, and small business owners.

Implications for Your Portfolio

The U.S. economy is, in many ways, preeminent and in good shape. However, it’s important for investors to understand that passively investing in the S&P 500 is not the only way to capitalize on U.S. economic strength.

 

Given the above risks, the Global Investment Committee prefers to instead diversify, finding opportunity amid extreme valuation dispersion, while seeking better risk-adjusted total returns with under-appreciated potential catalysts.

 

With that in mind, consider supplementing U.S. stocks and bonds with positions in non-U.S. equities like in Japan and emerging markets (EM), as well as global brands in Europe.

 

Also consider credit and spread products, master-limited partnerships (MLPs), residential real estate investment trusts (REITs), select hedge fund strategies, preferred securities, high-dividend-paying stocks and EM debt.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from January 21, 2025, “The Case for Diversification in Five Points.” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report. 

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