Can Stocks Keep Defying Higher Rates?

Sep 16, 2026

Stocks are climbing on strong earnings and artificial intelligence investment, but rising rates and consumer stress could test the rally.

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • Strong earnings, artificial intelligence investment and broader market leadership have made the equity rally healthier and more durable.
  • However, bond market pressure remains a key risk, as higher rates, oil prices and policy uncertainty could eventually weigh on stocks.
  • Consumer strength also bears watching: Affordability pressures and rising delinquencies could make spending more vulnerable if hiring slows.
  • Investors should consider favoring high-quality large companies, real assets and select alternatives while staying cautious on bonds and private credit.

U.S. stocks have continued to climb even as interest rates have moved higher, raising a fair question for investors: Can equities keep defying gravity?

 

For now, we think the answer is yes. The bull case remains intact, supported by strong earnings, accelerating investment in artificial intelligence and a market that is less dependent on mega-cap technology leaders. However, the risks are becoming harder to ignore. Higher bond yields, elevated oil prices, policy uncertainty and strain among lower-income consumers could test the rally as we move toward 2027.

Why Equities Have Room to Run

There’s more to this rally than positive sentiment. Corporate earnings have been exceptionally strong, with profits through the second quarter growing at a robust year-over-year pace and 2027 profit growth for the S&P 500 Index still poised to be healthy.

 

Artificial intelligence (AI) remains a powerful driver, as companies spend heavily on computing power, data centers and infrastructure, which is supporting technology, manufacturing, energy and industrials. Just as important, investors are no longer rewarding only the largest tech companies. Energy, health care, financials, companies adopting AI and differentiated leaders within technology, itself, have all helped widen the rally—leaving the market looking less top-heavy and equities more rationally priced than earlier in the cycle.

 

And while the U.S. market has performed well, rising roughly 12.5% to 13% year to date, non-U.S. equities have done even better, up about 20%.

Bonds Are the Main Test

Still, the biggest risk to equities may be the bond market. Stocks have absorbed higher bond yields so far, but the key question for 2027 is whether rising rates and renewed inflation pressure begin to weigh on equity valuations and earnings.

 

Several forces are pushing rates higher.

 

  • Middle East tensions, including concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, have lifted oil prices, which can keep inflation pressures alive and push bond yields higher. Renewed tariff discussions, especially around China, add to that risk.
  • Changing Federal Reserve policy is another factor. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh appears to favor decisions based on incoming data, rather than signaling plans far in advance. That could make investors less confident that the Fed will quickly step in to ease financial conditions during market volatility.
  • Policy uncertainty is adding pressure, too. When investors are unsure about government policy, they often demand extra return to hold longer-term Treasury bonds. Recent efforts by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to influence currency markets and borrowing costs have drawn renewed attention to the sustainability of U.S. debt and deficits, and appear to have heightened market concern rather than calm it.

Consumers Also Bear Watching

After accounting for inflation, incomes have barely grown, while everyday costs remain a strain. For lower-income households, balance sheets are showing more signs of stress, including rising delinquencies in auto loans, student loans and credit cards.

 

That doesn’t mean the consumer is falling apart, but it does mean the economy is leaning more heavily on continued hiring and wage growth to sustain spending—just as the stock market is increasingly relying on earnings growth to drive returns. That combination leaves less room for disappointment.

Portfolio Moves to Consider

Against this backdrop, Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee suggests investors continue to favor stocks, especially high-quality U.S. large-cap companies that generate reliable cash flow. Avoid chasing smaller, lower-quality stocks after their recent run, and consider complementing U.S. equities with exposure to emerging markets and Japan.

 

 In fixed income, investors may want to remain cautious overall and avoid taking a major position on interest-rate moves, given uncertainty around the path of inflation.

 

Because stocks and bonds have been moving together more often, some investors may also want to consider diversifiers such as hedge funds, commodities, gold, real estate, infrastructure and select private markets.

 

This article is based on Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Lisa Shalett’s “Global Investment Committee Monthly Perspectives” presentation from September 9, 2026. Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a link to the replay.

 

Shalett heads Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee, a group of seasoned investment professionals dedicated to helping investors navigate today’s markets.

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