2025 Outlook: Checking on 5 Core Fixed Income Sectors

Feb 12, 2025

After a long bull market for bonds, here’s how you can navigate evolving market conditions to optimize your investment strategy for the year ahead.

Author
Steve Edwards, Head of Portfolio Construction and Cross-Asset Strategy, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

Key Takeaways

  • With the Fed’s rate adjustments and ongoing economic shifts, a selective approach to bond investing will be crucial in 2025.
  • Treasuries may offer a lower-volatility option with attractive yields around 4.5%, providing a cushion against potential rate rises.
  • Agency mortgage-backed securities have been resilient amid higher rates, whereas TIPS may see only limited gains if inflation cools.
  • A healthy economic backdrop could support investment-grade corporate and municipal bonds, but they, too, pose some risk.

After a decades-long bull market for bonds, in which yields fell and prices were stable, many investors find themselves in unfamiliar terrain at the outset of a new cycle for fixed income: Bond rates remain well above the near-zero levels of the last decade, driven higher by resilient U.S. economic growth and persistent inflationary pressures while the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates following a rapid series of hikes in 2022-2023. Investors’ concerns about the growing federal debt load and uncertainty around how the new presidential administration’s policies might unfold have only added to recent upward pressure on yields.

 

Higher rates can mean bigger coupon payments but also lower bond prices, which move inversely to rates, creating risks but also opportunities for discerning investors.

 

Against this backdrop, how should you consider navigating fixed income markets in 2025? Here’s a closer look at the Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office’s outlook for lower-risk “core” fixed income sectors, which are considered a fundamental part of a diversified investment portfolio, often used to help generate income and preserve wealth.

  1. 1
    U.S. Treasuries

    Despite the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields, there remains a strong case for maintaining more exposure to U.S. Treasuries in a taxable bond portfolio. That’s because in addition to their lower-risk profile, they currently offer attractive yields around 4.5%. This creates a “yield cushion” that could help offset potential price declines should rates rise further.

     

    Current lower valuations may offer attractive entry points for investors, especially if upcoming inflation reports align with or fall below Wall Street’s expectations, spurring a rally.

     

    At the same time, investors should be mindful of “duration,” which is a measure of how sensitive a bond’s price is to interest rates. Longer-duration bonds see greater price declines when rates rise. Given the outlook for higher-for-longer rates, investors should aim for a “neutral” overall duration, roughly in-line with that for a benchmark like the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. This may help balance the trade-offs between income and the potential risk of price swings.

  2. 2
    Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS)

    TIPS are U.S. government bonds designed to help protect investors from inflation by adjusting in face value based on the consumer price index. TIPS currently appear less attractive, as rising inflation-adjusted, or “real,” yields may challenge their potential for capital appreciation. Also, TIPS typically gain when consumer prices are heating up. Key inflation measures have recently plateaued around 3%, however, and may be somewhat lower by year-end, likely muting possible upward adjustments in TIPS’ principal value. 

i
Given the outlook for higher-for-longer rates, investors should aim for a “neutral” overall duration, roughly in-line with that for a benchmark like the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index.
  1. 3
    Agency mortgage-backed securities

    In contrast to TIPS, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) might offer modest excess returns and a more balanced risk-reward profile, especially if rate volatility continues to decline. Their valuation when compared to other core fixed income assets, like U.S. Treasuries and investment-grade (IG) corporate bonds, appears fair.

     

    Also keep in mind that:

     

    • Agency MBS have recently benefited from a rise in banks retaining mortgages rather than securitizing them, which reduces the overall MBS supply and supports their prices.
    • They have shown resilient performance despite rising Treasury yields, higher mortgage rates and a softening of agency MBS demand amid more all-cash home purchases.

  2. 4
    Investment-grade corporate bonds

    Higher yields make investment-grade corporate bonds look moderately attractive, even though the extra yield an investor can expect for taking on risk in corporate bonds rather than U.S. Treasuries (known as “credit spread”) remains small. While a healthy economic backdrop, stable credit fundamentals and robust demand have buoyed the sector, the potential for significant excess returns from tightening credit spreads appears limited.

  3. 5
    Municipal bonds

    These fixed income securities are issued by U.S. state and local governments and are exempt from federal income tax and, in some cases, state and local taxes as well. They remain a viable option for investors seeking tax-advantaged income, particularly those in higher tax brackets.

     

    Historically low unemployment, resilient consumer activity, receding inflationary pressures and solid home prices should support healthy revenue growth and stable credit conditions for municipals. Investors do face risks due to increased local and state governments’ reliance on borrowing and potential budgetary pressures, as federal aid wanes, however. 

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Municipal bonds remain a viable option for investors seeking tax-advantaged income.

What strategy makes sense for you?

In 2025, investors will have to carefully balance opportunities for yield and return against potential risks. With the Fed’s rate adjustments and ongoing economic shifts, a selective approach to bond investing, focused on diversification and duration management, will be crucial.

 

As always, it’s important to align investment choices with personal financial goals and market conditions.

 

This article is based on Steve Edwards’ Global Investment Office report from January 14, 2025, “2025 Fixed Income Outlook: Core Sectors.” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy.

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