Drugs that treat obesity have become increasingly popular in the past three years, especially in the U.S. Now adoption of these medications is gaining strength internationally, bolstering their potential market.
Morgan Stanley Research now estimates the global market for obesity drugs could reach $150 billion at its peak in 2035, an increase from a previous forecast of $105 billion. In 2024, this market had about $15 billion in sales.
“We believe we are now at an inflection point for the broadening of obesity drugs’ use, which will extend beyond the U.S. to larger numbers of patients globally,” says Morgan Stanley Equity Analyst Terence Flynn.
A Broadening Market
According to the new estimates, about 11% of the global eligible population of 1.3 billion people could be on obesity drugs, including 20% of eligible patients in the U.S. and 10% in other countries. Currently, the adoption rate is around 3% in the U.S. and only 1% in other nations.
The adoption of weight-loss drugs is likely to accelerate in a pattern similar to structural changes in the technology cycle, such as the introduction of smartphones. Patients’ use will increase as they become more familiar and comfortable with the new products and as manufacturers address hurdles in production, distribution and regulatory issues.
There are five factors are likely to accelerate growth for obesity drugs:
Greater supply: After a period of shortages, the companies that produce the drugs have indicated that constraints have improved, while they are making substantial investments to increase production.
Clinical benefits for new diseases: New data show that obesity drugs can also be used in the treatment of conditions such as coronary heart disease and stroke, hypertension, kidney disease and sleep apnea. There are clinical studies indicating that they could be applied to fight other diseases, including Alzheimer’s, neuropsychiatric conditions, and cancer. Sales volume should increase as the drugs begin to treat a wider array of diseases.
Expanded payer coverage: Insurance coverage is likely to expand as obesity drugs are approved to treat new diseases, as noted above; as prices come down over time; and as new therapeutic options reach the market. Public healthcare coverage in the U.S. through Medicare should also broaden as these drugs are approved for obesity-related co-morbidities.
Introduction of pills: Some drugmakers are successfully developing obesity drugs in pill form instead of injectable medications as an alternative for patients targeting weight loss slightly less than that of next-gen injectables and/or use in the maintenance setting. These are easier to administer, including for patients who are averse to needles, and can reach global scale easily.
Next delivery mechanisms: Companies are developing innovations that could improve the way the drugs are taken, with new dosing schedules that could be reduced from the typical weekly dose to monthly or even less frequently.
Growth in the U.S. and Beyond
The U.S. is currently the biggest market in the world for obesity drugs, with about 8 million patients. That number could rise to 30 million in 2035, or about 20% to 25% of the obese population, a potential market of $80 billion.
“For the product to reach high levels of penetration, we believe primary care physicians (PCPs) will need to become higher-frequency prescribers,” Flynn says. “This will take some time as PCPs have not historically dealt with drugs that require frequent changes in dosage, with accompanying check-ins, until the patient reaches the full dosage. However, we believe this can be addressed in the coming years.”
For the rest of the world, the growth prospects are even better. The rate of penetration of obesity drugs is estimated to jump from about 1% currently to 10% of the obese population in the next 10 years, reaching a total market of $70 billion.
“We anticipate manufacturers’ focus on Asia's obesity market will grow, particularly in China and Japan, where penetration is low and innovation continues to emerge,” says Morgan Stanley Equity Analyst Thibault Boutherin.
Early data on launches of obesity drugs outside of the U.S. suggest high patient demand. In Brazil and India, for example, adoption has been fast despite the fact that most patients cover the costs of medication themselves.
The Ripple Effect on Other Sectors
The growth in use of obesity drugs has implications beyond the pharmaceutical industry. A Morgan Stanley AlphaWise survey, conducted in February and March 2025 among 280 people taking obesity drugs in the U.S., shows patients on weight-loss drugs experience significant changes in their food consumption and preferences.
That could have impacts for the packaged food and beverage industries, restaurants and grocery stores, and while the resulting weight loss could be a boon for apparel companies.
“Obesity drug patients continue to report eating healthier foods, spending less on groceries or cutting back on restaurant expenses. Additionally, nearly two-thirds of users in our survey went through a wardrobe refresh in the last six months,” Boutherin says. “Given the impact on appetite, this could drive a broad and lasting behavioral shift among a sizable demographic group – a group that accounts for a disproportionate share of food and beverage consumption.”
For full insights and analysis, ask your Morgan Stanley Representative or Financial Advisor for the full report, “Obesity Medication: The Broadening,” (April 24, 2025).”
