Do Stock Investors Need a Reality Check?

Jul 16, 2025

Optimism around the new tax law is propelling U.S. equities to record highs, but bond markets are signaling risk. Here’s what to watch.

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • The possibility of increased capital spending and productivity from corporate tax cuts is driving U.S. equity investors’ optimism.
  • However, bond market indicators reveal lingering concerns about inflation, economic growth and U.S. debt sustainability.
  • Wall Street’s corporate profit forecasts look overly optimistic, even as the impact of tax cuts on capex and productivity remains uncertain.
  • Investors should stay vigilant and consider stocks with the potential for upside surprises in earnings and cash flow.

U.S. equity markets have hit new all-time highs heading into the third quarter of 2025. Bullish investors seem to be dismissing concerns about cooling growth, tariff-driven inflation and swelling U.S. government debt. Their optimism now seems to focus on the corporate tax cuts passed in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which they expect to bring booms in capital spending and productivity that will boost company profits and stock returns.

 

To be sure, the S&P 500 Index rally may have a bit more room to run. That said, potential S&P 500 gains beyond 6600 in 2026 could be difficult. 

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Wealth Management

Big Wave?

Equities have gained on optimism around corporate tax cuts and dismissal of tariff concerns. It may be time for investors to curb their enthusiasm, though, given continued risks. Learn more.

Bond Markets Signal Risk

Although equity investors seem to be dismissing the inflation threat from tariffs, bond market data suggest that new trade duties remain a risk. The one-year forward inflation swap – a type of financial derivative closely tied to the bond market – is pricing a rise in inflation over the next 12 months to 3.3%, up 60-75 basis points from recent consumer inflation readings. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has depreciated more than 11% against other major currencies since January, diminishing its purchasing power internationally. This could magnify the inflationary effects of tariffs by making U.S. imports more expensive.

 

Similarly, U.S. Treasury markets seem skeptical of the narrative of economic re-acceleration embraced by equity investors. When bond investors anticipate stronger growth, inflation-adjusted, or “real,” yields often rise. However, since the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, real 10-year Treasury yields have continued to trade near 2%, in the tight range they have maintained since October 2024.

 

Meanwhile, the additional yield that long-term bond investors demand to compensate for future policy uncertainty, known as the “term premium,” has been consistently expanding since Election Day. For the 10-year Treasury, this premium is up 15 basis points since the tax bill’s passage, reflecting genuine concerns about U.S. debt sustainability.

Capex Growth Is Uncertain

Beyond these bond market dynamics, the Global Investment Committee also questions analysts’ aggressive predictions that company profit margins will expand to yet more record highs. Granted, advances in generative AI will probably continue to drive new capital spending and productivity over the next couple of years, which should support profitability – but stock prices likely already reflect that narrative.

 

Whether the tax law will also stimulate new capital spending is uncertain. Capex has already been extremely strong since 2021, and historically, there has been little correlation between such spending and effective tax rates. It’s possible that any additional capex attributable to the tax law may simply be offset by the cancellation of clean energy and infrastructure projects passed under previous legislation.

 

Finally, taking advantage of the tax law’s bonus depreciation and R&D expensing provisions may allow companies to enjoy one-time gains in cash flows and net income, but it won’t necessarily make them more efficient.

Portfolio Moves to Consider

Against this backdrop, it may be time for investors to contain their enthusiasm and re-anchor to reality, instead of investing for the best possible scenario.

 

Consider active stock picks with the potential for upside surprises in earnings and cash flow, like select tech stocks and others in financials, industrials, energy and parts of health care that may benefit from policy shifts.

 

Also look to add diversifying positions in international equities, commodities, energy infrastructure and hedge funds.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from July 14, 2025, “Big Wave?” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report. 

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