Are Investors Getting Overconfident?

May 7, 2025

After April’s tariff-induced volatility, the market’s mood has taken a bullish turn. But optimists may be overlooking key signals.

Author
Lisa Shalett

Key Takeaways

  • Despite ongoing tariff concerns, markets have rallied from their April lows.
  • Investors have regained confidence from strong corporate earnings, as well as hopes that the U.S. president will act to stop markets from falling and the Fed will cut rates.
  • However, concerns remain over negative GDP growth, weakening manufacturing activity and high U.S. debt levels.
  • Investors should avoid emotional decisions and maintain maximum portfolio diversification, while considering quality growth stocks and intermediate-term fixed income.

It’s almost as if the stock market drama in April never happened.

 

U.S. equities, after descending into bear-market territory following President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on April 2, closed the month having recouped nearly all of those losses. This remarkable “roundtrip” has left the benchmark S&P 500 Index down only about 3% year to date.

 

So why, after all the noise around tariffs, are investors feeling confident again? And is this newfound confidence well placed? Here’s our take.

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Wealth Management

Taking Stock

Easing tariff concerns, hopes of rate cuts, and solid earnings appear to be driving market optimism. But amid the move higher in stocks, investors may be overlooking key vulnerabilities.

Drivers of Market Optimism

A few factors explain the recent bullish turn: 

  1. 1
    Expected presidential action

    Markets expect that the U.S. president will take action to support a falling market. The administration’s recent back-pedaling and exceptions on tariffs, which helped stem deeper market losses, seem to validate this belief.

     

    However, little has actually changed since April 2. Despite the U.S. pause on reciprocal tariffs to allow for trade negotiations, the White House plan still leaves the effective tariff rate at about 17%, compared with about 3% previously.

     

    Nonetheless, markets seem convinced that steeper reciprocal tariffs won’t come to pass and that only the administration’s 10% universal tariffs will remain – a level seen as sufficient to keep recession at bay in the U.S. 

  2. 2
    Anticipated Fed moves

    Equally important is the potential for U.S. central bank easing. Although the Federal Reserve has tended to be hawkish for most of this year, recent data on inflation and unemployment have spurred investor hopes that rate cuts in 2025 are back on the table.

     

    The latest readings for both the “core” Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index have suggested cooling inflation, driven in part by plummeting energy prices.

     

    Futures markets are now discounting more than four rate cuts this year, up from around two at the beginning of April.

  3. 3
    Q1 earnings

    Finally, solid first-quarter 2025 corporate earnings results have added to the bullish tone – especially from the “Magnificent 7” mega-cap tech stocks, which dominate benchmark U.S. stock indexes.

     

    Analysts had expected S&P 500 profits to grow only about 5% in the first quarter and accelerate to 14% by the end of the year. Instead, first-quarter earnings, as reported for about two-thirds of S&P 500 companies through last week, were pacing at a 12% gain year-over-year. 

Reasons for Caution

While these developments are encouraging, Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Committee believes markets seem to be ignoring macroeconomic concerns, such as negative growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) and weakening demand in the manufacturing sector. Labor markets are showing signs of strain as well, and consumer sentiment is around multi-decade lows.

 

In addition, the U.S. government’s outsized debt continues to grow alongside its interest expenses. A solution to this debt-financing problem, which threatens to drive borrowing costs still higher, is far from clear.

 

In spite of these signals, stock valuations are back near their highs, even as earnings forecasts are deteriorating. This suggests that equities may be overpriced and investors could be setting themselves up for disappointment.

How to Invest

With so many moving parts, we remain vigilant and suggest investors stick to their plans, avoiding emotional moves in either direction.

 

Consider maintaining maximum portfolio diversification by asset class, sector and region. Long-term investors should consider 5,100-5,500 a defensible index range for adding exposure to the capitalization-weighted S&P 500, as long as the U.S. stays out of a recession. That said, the Global Investment Committee still prefers equal-weighted investments in the S&P 500 (i.e., seeking to allocate the same amount to each stock) or active stock-picking to passive exposure.

 

For active investors, quality growth stocks with achievable earnings estimates may be attractive. Fixed income with maturities in the three-to-seven-year range may also offer value. Consider looking for select opportunities in the municipal bond sector.

 

This article is based on Lisa Shalett’s Global Investment Committee Weekly report from May 5, 2025, “Taking Stock.” Ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy. Listen to the audiocast based on this report. 

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