Four Power Plays in the Energy Sector

Aug 8, 2025

Though the outlook on oil may be uncertain amid recent price fluctuations, there are still compelling investments in energy.

Author
Monica Guerra, Head of US Policy, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Author
Daniel Kohen, US Policy Strategist, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

Key Takeaways

  • Oil prices remain volatile, with potential for further declines if supply stays plentiful and demand weakens.
  • However, natural gas looks poised for growth, driven by rising demand from AI technologies and increased U.S. exports.
  • Energy infrastructure MLPs may benefit from higher U.S. natural gas exports, offering investors a potential hedge against inflation.
  • Clean and alternative energy remains promising despite policy changes, with nuclear power gaining traction as a key player in meeting future energy demands.

Oil prices surged in June on supply fears as conflict escalated in the Middle East, only to fall sharply following U.S. airstrikes in Iran, de-escalation and a ceasefire. While prices have since leveled out, they could fall further and remain vulnerable to more big swings if geopolitical tensions flare up again.

 

However, that doesn’t mean investors can’t find compelling investments in the energy sector. Here are key risks and opportunities to watch:

An Uncertain Outlook for Crude

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices were trending down into the second quarter, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced new output hikes and investors worried tariffs would slow global growth and curb oil consumption. However, they began recovering in May amid heightened geopolitical tensions and saw a short-lived spike in June as Middle East hostilities peaked.

 

Since then, WTI prices have hovered around $65 a barrel – and they may settle lower from here. Morgan Stanley Research sees crude trading in the $53-to-$56-per-barrel range until the end of 2026. If supply stays plentiful and geopolitical risks subside, downside price risks could emerge from tariffs potentially weighing on demand. Ultimately, OPEC’s buildup of spare capacity could limit prolonged upside for prices. 

Opportunities Elsewhere

Energy investors may want to consider adding exposure in other areas: 

  1. 1
    Natural Gas

    In contrast to crude, the natural gas market looks poised for growth, driven by constrained global supply and increasing demand from data centers and generative AI technologies, as well as the potential onshoring of more power-intensive businesses like manufacturing.

     

    Additionally, the EU’s shift away from Russian energy has significantly boosted U.S. natural gas exports. Such exports remain a focal point of trade negotiations, with the EU and Japan recently pledging significant purchases of liquified natural gas (LNG) from the U.S. as part of their respective trade deals with the administration. 

  2. 2
    Energy infrastructure

    Master limited partnerships (MLPs), which focus on energy infrastructure, derive most of their revenues from midstream activities, including transporting, distributing and exporting commodities like oil and natural gas through pipelines and other networks. They have outperformed the broader energy sector by 9% since the 2024 U.S. election and are likely to continue benefiting from a rise in U.S. natural gas production and exports.

     

    MLPs can also help investors hedge inflation by providing steady income through distributions that often increase with rising energy prices.

  3. 3
    Clean and Alternative Energy

    Clean and alternative energy stocks have been outperforming traditional energy so far this year, despite the administration’s support for fossil fuels. This is consistent with a recent historical pattern: Under the previous Trump term, these stocks also outpaced traditional energy and then underperformed during the Biden administration, despite robust fiscal support. This suggests interest rates may have a greater impact on clean and alternative energy stocks than fiscal spending, with lower rates typically supporting stronger performance.

     

    That said, policy developments do play a role. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act immediately phases out certain clean-energy-related tax credits, including for electric vehicles, home solar and storage, for example, but it imposes less stringent rollbacks on utility-scale wind and solar power projects. Overall, the legislation can be seen as softer on clean and alternative energy than previously expected, especially for hydrogen, geothermal and nuclear energy production.

  4. 4
    Nuclear Power

    Within the clean and alternative energy industry, nuclear energy stocks have soared lately – up over 50% since early April, due to a combination of policy support and AI data center tailwinds. The executive branch has issued orders to streamline nuclear development, speed up licensing and pivot nuclear fuel supply chains back to the U.S.

     

    Beyond the political embrace, growing AI demand for power will likely require both conventional and non-conventional energy sources to meet data center needs.

Your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor can help you identify energy sector opportunities that make sense for your portfolio.

 

To learn more, ask your Morgan Stanley Financial Advisor for a copy of the report US Policy Pulse: The Power Playbook from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Global Investment Office. Listen to the audiocast based on this report.

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